Seminole Source

Clemson FSU prediction

2008-11-04T10:18:00.000-08:00

I thought this week I would get a head start on the Clemson predictions, so here it is. First Clemson is a good football team and if we walk away with a win then it would be considered quality win. Personally the issues that they have had in years have been more of a coaching problem and looking at the stats you can clearly see were their issues are. It seems that there problems were not with getting players to produce but rather knowing when to get production from certain players. The best example I have to show what I mean is Davis and Spiller. Did you know that neither of these guys have had a 1000 yard season yet? That kind of surprises me considering how much hype they have had throughout the years. Looking at their numbers they produce the yardage but for some reason they are not used very much. Spiller gets about 8 carries a game and Davis gets about 11 carries a game. Look these guys are play makers they need to be touching the ball several more times than that. But that is just me.

Opponent Summary

Don’t be surprised is Clemson tries to use the option with Korn. Why would they do that you may ask? Because of the way we got handled against the option last week. And Clemson’s Coach is interviewing for a job and he needs to show the boosters he is willing to do whatever it takes to win games, including doing something out of the ordinary. You already know about Davis and Spiller, but Ford and Kelly might prove to give us more issues then Davis and Spiller. Kelly stands at 6’5’’ 190 lb. and Ford is a speedy guy at 5’10’’ 185. Whoever is covering Kelly is going to have a hell of a time covering him. It will be important to get pressure on the QB in order to prevent a big play from this guy. Which brings me to my next point and that is their OL versus our DL. Look our DL is going to come out hungry. Clemson has given up 14 sacks for 102 yards. We have delivered 22 sacks for 162 yards. This is going to be key for our defense if we expect to win this game. Another point to illustrate Clemson has lost almost 20% of their rushing yards due to TFL.

What to expect?

Jimbo will try to establish the run as always (I know you were looking for something different here). Don’t think we will see any surprises here. We will probably run Thomas more and probably be running DVO more. And don’t be surprised to see DVO and Ponder on the field at the same time. The major weakness I see in the Clemson defensive team is 3^rd down conversions. Right now their defense has allowed 39% of 3^rd down to be converted. Also TOP, Clemson has allowed their opponents to have the ball 6 more minutes than they do. These two stats really play well to our strengths.

On defense if we put significant pressure on their OL we win the game. They play a type of offense that demands a good OL and right now they don’t have that. The QB has thrown 13 INTS, and the OL has given up 14 sacks. On top of that Clemson has lost almost 20% of their rushing yards due to TFL. Also Clemson hasn’t rushed for 1000 yards of total rushing yet for this season. Kind of interesting considering they have two very good RB. The major weakness I see is again 3^rd down conversions. Their offense has only been able to convert 30% of their 3^rd downs into 1^st downs. That does not look good going up against a defense that has only allowed 19%

Prediction

Our defense will be hungry and our offense will want to win this game more than ever. 35-16 FSU.

Simple Meaningless Thoughts

2008-11-03T11:38:00.000-08:00

Jermain Thomas was a 3-star player our of HS. Ty Jones was a 2-star player

Last year we were able to score 32 TD's total for the year. This year we already have 33 TD's and we are on course to getting 50 TD's.

Before Saturday's game against GT we allowed opponents to rush for ~80 yards per game. Since then our OPP rushing averaged has changed to 105.9 yards per game.

On Saturday we rushed for 196 yards. Since sacks count as rushing yards in college football we would have rushed for 228 yards.

With Neisbit as the starting QB for GT, the GT offense was able to gain 321 yards of total offense. With him out of the game the offense was only able to muster 15 yards.

As I said in one of my earlier posts GT has scored on almost all of their drives that starts them at about their own 40 yards line or closer. But seem to struggle when they are placed further out. Going from scoring points 67% of the time from GT40 or closer to scoring less then 25% of the time further out. First four scoring drives: FLSt 46,GT 38,GT 39,FLSt 4.

5 of the 6 times GT was pushed further then then their 40 they scored 0 points. NOTE: This stat may not be a fair assessment because 3 of those drives did not include GT's starting QB. Still 2 of 3 with zero points shows something about their offense.

Concerning the Goal line call

2008-11-03T06:49:00.001-08:00

First it was a good call on the goal line. 2nd and 3 on the 5 running the FB up the middle is a great call. Sims before has run the ball for 60 yards on 20 carries and has only lost 4 yards on those 20 carries. He is a good FB that will get us the yards we need in those short yardage situations. If Sims didn't fumble the ball we would have had it on the 1 yard line first and goal with one timeout and ~45 seconds remaining.

Why didn't Jimbo use Thomas?

Probably because Thomas is part of the 2nd team offense and usually 2nd teamers are not part of goal line packages. Plus Thomas suffered from a concussion the week before and putting him in a power football situation might not be the best for him.

Why didn't Jimbo use Smith?

Smith was used sparingly due to being beat up from the VT game. Using him in a power run might not have been a good idea.

Why didn't Jimbo use Holloway?

Probably because Holloway has only rush once for zero yards.

Why didn't Jimbo throw a jump ball to Carr?

It is 2nd and 3 if the ball is incomplete we now have a 3rd and 3 situation and a must 3rd down conversion. If we do not score a TD here we are forced to kick a FG to send it to overtime, where we have a high percentage chance of losing considering how we had defended the GT offense. Not to mention throwing the ball gives us a good chance of throwing an INT.

At the end of the day the fault falls on the shoulders of Mikey Andrews for not preparing our guys better. I do not fault Sims at all for the lose. Our offense scored 28 points against a defense, that had only allowed 13 points per game.

Reason for a lose

2008-10-30T07:35:00.000-07:00

While reading messages boards, blogs and articles I have come up with a short list of reasons why people think FSU will lose this game.

FSU didn't play well in the second half of NCST.

FSU allowed 20 to VT when VT had their 3rd string QB in.

FSU will not be able to defend the triple-option because

The game is in ATL and GT will not lose 2 games in a row at home.

FSU's offensive line is too young and GT's DL will cause major problems.

I have projected that FSU will lose this game(13-10 GT). And I can assure you my reason for us losing this game are not for the reason above, mostly due to the fact that these reason are beyond asinine.

To each point I say:

NCST? Who cares? That game was two games ago. They are the only ACC team to rush for more then 100 yards against us. Also note two major things. They didn't get a 100 yard rusher on us and the most important part we still won the game.

First VT's 3rd string QB didn't score 20 points on our defense he scored 7 toward the end of the game. I think if you are looking how that QB did against our defense take a look at the 2nd half yardage. FSU D allowed 38 yards the entire 2nd half. But what do I know?

- Personally I am tired of hearing this argument. I hear it all the time. The fact I live in ATL may have a lot to do with it though. In the ACC GT has averaged ~20 points a game and get this duke is inflating that stat! Without duke they are scoring less then 20 in ACC play. My point is people in the ACC are finding ways to stop this offense. It might not be in the beginning of the game but quarters 2-4 that is certainly the case.

Do I really need to address this one no. Why? Because word on the street is there are going to be more FSU fans in the ATL then GT fans. Oh well.

I give the OL argument some cred. Only because it is an obvious weakness on our team. The problem I have with it is, this weakness alone hasn't stopped us. And it didn't prevent us from scoring 30 against VT, and from what I hear VT has a pretty good defense.

What are my reason for a lose? The two keys for this game will be ball control and field position. And I do not feel very good about the later of the two.

Looking at some drive logs GT, in conference play, has turned ~30% of their drives into points. For us it is about ~36% and since Wake Forest it has been ~49%. I should not have to point out the obvious advantage we have here.

Also special teams needs to give GT bad field position. About 2/3rd of GT scoring drives started at the GT40 or closer. We need to force them to go the length of the field. Hell instead of punting the ball we might as well have Ponder throw the ball as far as he can for an INT. If we catch it great 1st down if they do fine, now lets see you drive the ball 80 yards.

A Bobby Bowden Classic

2008-10-19T22:07:00.001-07:00

North Carolina State Predictions

2008-10-13T09:58:00.000-07:00

Gosh it has been a while. I guess this is what happens during a bye week....nothing. Well first FSU has it's hearing with the NCAA for it's involvement with academic scandal. More on this latter.

This is Chuck Amato's first game in Raleigh, NC since he was fired as the head coach at NCST. Look for the linebackers to have a big game for the chest. Also as a side note FSU has to score 7 more TD's(49 points) in order to tie for the number of TD's scored from all of last season. Right now FSU is averaging 39.6 points per game and NCST is allowing 30 points per game. Could this be the game where we tie for last seasons TD total?

Opponent Summary

This game is going to be won on special teams. NCST cannot move the ball very well down field, however when they get into the redzone they usually score a touchdown. So far this year NCST has only be able to score a touchdown if the special teams moves them close enough. They have shown moments were they can drive the field to score but it is rare, in fact I can count the number of times on one hand. One person to look out for is T.J. Grahm. He has returned one KO for a touchdown already. And he has gone the last three games returning a KO for 40 yards or more. Gano is going to have to kick this ball far and high if we have any chance of stopping this guy. And sorry but I am not buying into Wilson. I realize he was able to give BC nightmares, but seriously what has he done that was so magnificent? Unless he is saving up all of his skill for the FSU game I will not expect him to be a major factor in this game.

NCST's defense is something else. Allowing 430 points per game and 30 points per game. Also allowing 170 rushing yards per game as well. The defense should not pose a problem for us.

What to look for

Look for Jimbo to establish the run (I might as well make this my opining sentence for every prediction). But don't be surprised if Jimbo opens up the game with a play action pass. Jermain Thomas will get more touches for this game, most likely 10-15. Also I suspect Ponder will be passing more in this game. I will say if we have a chance to lose this game it will be through the passing game. The last time we focused on the passing game it was against Wake Forest, and we all know what happened there. I think however we will have some major success through the air, I know the receivers are chopping at the bit to contribute this year.

Prediction

If we are able to stop their special teams man from making plays this game won't even be close. Expect a score of 45-17 FSU.

So You Don't Like The BCS?

2008-10-07T06:02:00.000-07:00

Well so do many other people including myself. So what I will do in this blog post is do exactly what oh so many have done before me and that is come up with my own solution. I know I know; playoffs....blah blah blah....plus one....blah blah blah, forget it! It is all garbage! Here at Seminole Source I have come up with the best solution to our current problem. What's that? You want to know what it is? Well......ok.

Here goes, first think about what the BCS is meant to do. It was created so that the number 1 team and the number 2 team would play each other in a bowl game to determine who is the best team in college football. All the other bowl games are essentially game for next year and game to help teams with recruiting. So having said that is their anything wrong with the BCS? The short answer is no, but the their is something wrong with how we choose a number 1 and number 2. First you have the Harris poll then you have the AP poll and then you have the coaches poll and then some weird computer poll (this frightens me because this implies that computers have are advanced enough to have opinions). With all these polls and opinions how in the world will anyone be satisfied with the end result? Well truth be told we are not satisfied. So in other words we don't need to fix the BCS but rather we need to fix the way we rank teams.

Alright enough of the set up. Here is the best solution one could possibly come up with for fixing college football; Let's have a point system! For example every team starts off with 50 or so points at the beginning of every season. Each team then has to wager half of their total points for every game they play. If a team loses they lose those points, rounding down. While the team who won wins those points rounding up. We then rank the teams according to total number of points at the end of each week.

How will this effect scheduling weaker opponents in the first few games?

It should force teams to cut back on that. While the first game will most likely be a cupcake game, since all teams have the same number of points, as the season progresses teams will want to schedule harder competition. Due to the fact that the tougher teams will have more points toward the end of the season.

How do you handle tie breakers?

First if the two teams have played each other during the year the team who won gets the high ranking. However the odds of that happening are rare so the team with the best overall record gets ranked high and then whoever has the best conference ranking.

What about bowl games?

Bowl games and the Championship game does not change just the way each team is ranked.

Miami Game Afterthought

2008-10-05T17:53:00.000-07:00

Miami's defense like I predicted here was not as advertised. We were able to run on them with ease. It is surprising that UF struggled so much against them.
Take away three plays from this game and the score is 41-20 FSU. However due to the miscues from the not-so-speacial teams and one by the offense, we ended up giving up 19 points due to turnovers.
Christian Ponder is a lot better then people originally thought. He was able to make a number of plays with his legs. Now let's see him make some with his arm.
Jimbo called a great game however given a second chance he probably would have called a run play instead of the screen pass that lead to Ponders 2nd INT. Also upon further observation it would appear that Smith's 4th TD was not a play call to get into the middle of the field but rather a designed play.
Bobby was on average 35.7 yards away from the rest of the team the entire night.

Miami Prediction

2008-10-01T07:25:00.000-07:00

First Things First

We have an opportunity this weekend to file the stands and over power our away team. Last week against UNC, Miami was only able to pull in 30K-most of which were UNC fans. So lets make Dolphins Stadium DOAK!

Opponent Summary

As stated here Miami's defense truly should not be something to worry too much about. If we get into the Red zone we will most likely score against their defense (9/10). Their offense has some bright spots in it with their RB's and their QB's seem to be play well enough to win. However I am curious to see how well Miami can play with our pass rush.

What to look for

Look for Jimbo to establish the run once again. We will not just see Smith running the ball, but you will see Thomas, Jones and with the return of Sims we should see a lot more counters and I-formation plays. Watch Ponder to throw short swing passes and deep play action passes.

Prediction

Alright I know I will most likely catch hell for this but here goes; 30-14 FSU. I think RS is going to have one LB in coverage in order to make up for their secondary's lack of performance. This will hurt their run defense significantly.

Ok Tell Me Again Why Miami's Defense Is Dangerous?

2008-10-01T06:20:00.000-07:00

Look at some quick stats here:

Ranking of Offensive Yards in 1-AA

Charleston Southern - 251.

Ranking of Rushing yards per game

UF- 58
Texas A&M - 101
North Carolina- 98

So After Looking at these stats UF really hasn't played a team with much of a rushing offense. Now In order for my argument to be complete I would also have to contend that we have a rushing offense but that is not clear at the moment. But I honestly think Miami's rushing defense is not as advertised. Not saying they are bad, they are good just not as dangerous as the Number 1 ranking in the ACC would suggest. Not mention the combined FBS teams.....average 3.7 yards a carry, with UF inflating that stat with 4.4 yards a carry.

Oh yeah and their passing defense; has allowed passers to put up a 143(101 NFL) passer rating, giving up 8 TD through the air.

So knowing all of this why is Miami's defense considered so dangerous? Stay tuned for the Miami game prediction post.

Colorado After Thought

2008-09-28T17:16:00.000-07:00

The Seminoles on Saturday were able to route the Buffs 39-21. I have to admit that I still do not have any closure in regard to our offense. Yes I know we put up 39 points but I also know that 18 of those points came from special teams. And only 21 of those points came from our actual offense, which without those special team points we would be tied with Colorado.

Look Antone was great, Thomas wasn't bad but our QB was terrible. Yes Ponder was able to collect himself in the second half. He still was not able to engineer a TD drive. And with us playing Miami next week we are going to need him to get going because Smith cannot be our offense. Ponder needs to play well due to all the talent we have at WR . One of the things that are bothering fans right now; why isn't Preston Parker playing well? Well the simple answer is we don't have anyone throwing the football right now.

I leave you with one final thought if Ponder were to play decent we easily put 50 points on Colorado.

ACC Predictions

2008-09-26T09:28:00.000-07:00

UNC vs. Miami: UNC 21-14

Virginia vs. Duke: Virginia 28-7

Maryland vs. Clemson: Clemson 35-14

BC vs. Rhode Island: BC 21-3

NCST vs. USF: USF 35-0

VT vs. Nebraska: Nebraska 14-3

FSU vs. Colorado: FSU 17-3

Which Result Would You Rather Have Seen this Past Weekend?

2008-09-24T10:22:00.000-07:00

A FSU team that lost the game but had zero turnovers and few penalties?

And FSU team that had 7 turnovers over 130 yards of penalties and lost the game by 9?

The Truth is I think I would rather see the later of the two. Why? Because the first one tells me that this was a team that wasn't good enough to win. The second tells me it was a team that wasn't focused enough to win. I would rather have a team that couldn't focus then a team that wasn't talented enough. A team that isn't focused enough can be fixed and team not talented enough can't be fixed, it can only be changed.

Colorado Prediction

2008-09-24T08:10:00.000-07:00

First I would like to say Colorado gets some major props because their head coach has his own web page and blog.

What kind of team is Colorado?

A very good one actually. Watching some youtube videos of them one could easily argue that they are better then Wake Forest. They have two talented running back and a QB, who is also Coach Hawkins son, that is very accurate. Colorado also has two good receivers and the chemistry between Hawkins and these two WR have been great the past 3 games.

Their defense has not impressed me however. Their secondary has made QB's look fairly impressive allowing them to post a 137.4 QB rating (~94 NFL). Their rushing defense is better allowing their first two opponents to rush for 2.7 and 2.1 yards per carry, but also giving up 6.0 yards per carry to WVU a rush first offense.

What to look for?

Look for FSU to try again to establish a running game and stick with the short passes early on. Establishing a running game may prove to be difficult since one of Colorado's strength seems to be rushing defense. I suspect after the last game the QB's will not go deep as often this game as they did last game. The short passing game seemed to work so well in the first two weeks we may see it again this week.

Our defense seems to match up pretty well against Colorado especially since we have a lot more depth now then we did a week ago. Look for Colorado to pass early and try to set up the run by passing the ball. I suspect Dan Hawkins will not be in a hurry to go up against a slew of LB and DL that we currently have on our roster. But would rather try to establish a passing game early. Let's hope Pat Robinson can pull in our teams first INT of the season in this game.

Prediction

This has been a tough prediction since I was so completely off on my prediction last week. I will have to go with 17-3 FSU, which would be a complete disappointment since I believe we match up very well against Colorado. FSU is very capable of handling these guys and it would be the perfect game for Ponder and DVO to gain back some confidence, but I just don't see it happening yet. FSU really needs a leader right now to step up and say; "come on and let's do this!"

Let's Be Fair

2008-09-23T04:41:00.000-07:00

First I don't need to remind everyone how bad FSU played on Saturday. I mean it is only Tuesday and I think the hang over from the game is just now wearing off. Andrew Carter posted a blog today discussing what was said about the game from Fisher, Ponder and Andrews. For the most part I would have to agree with him. But he seems to place 100% of the blame on Fisher for FSU pathetic play on Saturday, an opinion I do not share with him.

I think we need to make something clear here; if anything should get the blame it should fall 100% on the shoulders of our inexperienced OL. Give us the penalties, the turnovers and dead plays and we still would have won that game convincingly if our OL blocked better against Wake's experienced DL.

Think about it we couldn't run the football effectively in that game making our team a very one dimensional team. A team with two QB's that have only truly played 2 games (if you want to call those games) this season and part of one game last season. This really played to Wake Forest's strength considering the type of DB's they have on their team. So I do not place any of the blame on the QB's or Jimbo Fisher, instead I place the blame on the OL and their inexperience.

Don't Become A Deranged Alabama Fan

2008-09-22T06:25:00.000-07:00

Probably the most annoying type of fans in all of college football, other then UF fans, are Alabama fans. These are fans that think Alabama football is football and other top programs like USC and UGA are several steps below Alabama football. They celebrate wins from mediocre teams and have a huge big dumb question mark hanging over their heads when they lose. Deranged Alabama fans are crazy...so much so that I think the American Psychological Association has added this behavior to their list of untreatable mental illnesses.

With a lose against Wake Forest this past weekend we need to be careful not to fall into a similar diagnosis. Yes this was a huge disappointment. I mean this was arguably the biggest game since 2006. This game alone was suppose to set the tone for the rest of the season. And losing 12-3 isn't exactly the tone we wanted to set. Be patient there are still 9 more games left in the season.

ACC Predictions

2008-09-19T08:17:00.000-07:00

NCST vs. ECU - Has ECU unoffically joined the conference or something? ECU 24-6.

GT vs Miss St. - A run first offense that produces 254.7 yards a game versus a running defense that allows 244 yards per game. GT 45-7.

Maryland vs E. Mich - Maryland with an impressive win against Cal last week is now facing a no body Mid-American conference member. Maryland 34-7.

BC vs UCF - BC showed that they are going to need some major playmakers at WR due to Crane's inability to make plays on his own. UCF 24-21.

Clemson vs S.C. st - Clemson hopefully got their grove back against NCST last week. This should be a snoozer. Clemson 54-10.

VT vs UNC - Should be an interesting game. VT is obviously down and UNC is on the up. hmmm go with the upset UNC 17-14.

Miami vs aTm - Miami won their moral victory last week in the UF trouncing. While it shows that Miami's defense might be good their offense is not. Miami 21-6.

Wake vs FSU - Prediction 34-17 FSU.

Wake Forest Predictions

2008-09-18T06:17:00.000-07:00

Opponent Summary:

This weekend we play wake. A team that couldn't average over 3.2 yards per carry against Baylor and Ole Miss. This team however has a very good QB in Riley Skinner posting a 147 QB rating so far this year. Their OL has already given up 5 sacks and 15 Tackles for a loss in those two games. Their DL has only produced 2 sacks and and 9 tackles for a loss, however they have only allowed their opponent to run for 3.2 yards a carry. Their secondary QB rating is about 118 (70 for NFL) and have forced 4 INT's.

What to look for:

Look for FSU to run the ball and run it a lot. This part of the offense is imperative in order to have a successful game. Wake does have a pretty experienced starting DL but that is it underneath their starting DL is a Sr., Fr., So. and another Fr. Jimbo should take advantage of this and try to tire out that DL as much as possible forcing Wake to make a bunch of substitutions. On the flip side to that we do not have the most experienced OL in the world. And if you take away DVO 55 yard run in the last game we only average 4.5 yards a carry instead of 6.2 yards per carry. This concerns me a little bit. On top of having a QB that has only started 2 games; Wake has produced 4 INTS already. Ultimately this should be a good game.

Prediction:

If all goes well; we are successful at running the football and are able to slow Railey Skinner down, then the final score should 34-17 FSU.

Forecast for the game

2008-09-12T09:28:00.001-07:00

High 93 with a 20% chance of rain.

Lies, Bowden, and Scandal

2008-09-12T06:21:00.000-07:00

No this isn't another Sarah Palin smear. We are talking about the NCAA imaginary hammer that will fall onto the program at anytime. Randy Spetmen has concluded the universities response to the NOA sent by the NCAA back in June. What was found in the NOA? NO.....NEW......TAXES! Oh wait I mean NO.......NEW.....ALLEGATION! So for the record FSU was not "Stonewalling " because they had something it hide, in case anyone was wondering.

One thing to keep in mind here is FSU could and likely will receive harsher punishment from the NCAA from the academic scandal. Will it be so harsh that it will significantly effect the competition for years to come? Yes and no. It depends mostly on what happens to the program but keep in mind that this was an athletic department wide issue and not just a football team issue. There for expect the punishment to effect the department as a whole rather then just one particular sport.

"But football had the most athletes involved!" Yes they did but there are also 80-90 some athletes on the team. They make up the majority of the total athletes in the department. Any kind of accusation that amounts that FSU was covering up anything with regard to this scandal is at best preposterous. We will wait and see what happens.

Review of self-imposed punishment:

Requiring all student-athletes with remaining eligibility, regardless of the grade received, who were enrolled in the course during the semesters in question, to retake the course for a new grade;
Instituting significant changes in the format and structure of certain online courses;
Implementing significant changes in the structure and processes of the Athletics Academic Support Services (AASS) unit;
Contracting with an outside consultant to conduct a review of the AASS unit;
Reviewing all online courses and requiring that all exams be taken in a proctor setting;
Examining and modifying the university's systems for monitoring academic course work taken by student-athletes;
Making (and continuing to make) personnel changes within the athletics department;
Imposing grant cuts in 10 sports; and
Reallocating funds from the athletics department to the AASS unit.

What do you get when you add Thug U with Gunsville University?

2008-09-12T05:00:00.000-07:00

50 arrest and 121 fans ejected from the game.

"Police arrested 50 people and ejected 121 fans from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, according to the Gainesville Sun. It was the most arrests at a Florida football game in the past three years."

Release of the NOA

2008-09-11T17:38:00.000-07:00

Andrew Carter at the Chopping Block says the NOA will be released tomorrow at 9 am. Stay tuned for details.

DVO or Ponder?

2008-09-11T10:54:00.000-07:00

Ok I know what you are thinking; not this again. But hear me out. I was wondering if Bowden and Fisher were actually serious about a 2 QB system this season. Then I saw this article in the Orlando Sentinel. It seems like it would make the most sense, but another side of me says-Jimbo really hasn't had experience using 2 QB's. I still say the best combo will be a Ponder between the 20s and DVO in the red zone. Also it would make interesting fun to have both QB's in the game. DVO could certainly play WR or RB.

ACC Picks Of The Week

2008-09-11T05:55:00.000-07:00

UNC vs Rutgers: 21-14, UNC

UCONN vs Virginia: 14-0, UCONN

Clemson vs NCST: 34-7, Clemson

Cal vs Maryland: 35-14, Cal

GT vs VT: 21-10, VT

FSU vs Chattanooga

Duke vs Navy: 3-0, whoever wins the coin toss

You think the 69-0 Win Against Western Carolina wasn't Significant Think Again

2008-09-10T06:43:00.000-07:00

Consider last years team. Now consider this years team. Notice how there was only 2 guys rushing the football last year and this year; DVO and Smith. Also look at the receivers from last year to this year; Carr and Owens are the only two that played last year and this year.

This is very significant especially since we had few dropped passes, the receivers played very physical football, the running game was there and we had many players running the football. The future is very bright here and I think we will learn a lot about our team this weekend. True it is another push over but I think we may impress a lot of people in a time were the ACC is very mediocre at best.

"You’ve got to be addicted to the touchdown"

2008-09-09T19:06:00.000-07:00

Says Jarmon Fortson. This quote speaks volumes about our current team. Last season we got into the red zone just as many times as our opponent only to score FG's. It was almost as if we were afraid to score. Like the lock Ness monster lived there. I think this "addiction" has been lacking in previous Seminoles teams. Hopefully, by scheduling two cupcakes in the beginning of the season, this will create the addiction every player on the FSU football team needs.

State of the ACC

2008-09-09T09:56:00.000-07:00

Wake – Still having trouble running the ball, averaging 3.2 yards per carry for the first 2 games. This week they have a bye week so maybe they can tie up loose ends. We will see as their opponent after the by e is FSU.

Florida State – Looked very impressive against their opener against Western Carolina. The Noles had many positives to come from the game, plus it seems their QB issues have been solved. The Noles have arguably been the most impressive out of all the ACC team winning 69-0. However they did play Western Carolina which, last I checked, is not a very competitive opponent. Still this win has got to be a breath of fresh air for the noles who have had back to back 7-6 seasons.

Maryland- With a lose to worst team in the sun belt conference and barely squeaking by Delaware the 2^nd worst team in the Colonial conference, it is hard to believe that they would be a contender in the ACC. One would even wonder why anyone would consider them having the best OL in the ACC. Particularly after giving up 40 sacks last year and giving up 4 already this year against the worst in the Sun Belt and Colonial conferences.

Clemson – Got a win this weekend but managed to still give up over 400 yards to citadel. It is becoming clear that if you want to succeed against Clemson just throw the ball on them.

Boston College – Lost to GT but in all honesty this game could have gone either way.

North Carolina State – Truly a team that will not be very good this year. They got the win against William and Mary but only beat them by 10.

Virginia Tech – Is Tyrod the answer? We will find out as the season goes on but look at the stats against Furman; Glennon-3/8, 42 yards, 1 sack, 1 TD, 1 INT, Taylor-4/5, 26 yards, 3 sacks, 0 TD, 0 INT, 14 rushes 112 yards.

Miami-Had a great showing against UF. But other than a moral victory there is nothing here. Especially not on the offensive side of the ball. I don’t know what this game says; Miami is not as bad as we thought they were or UF is not as good as we thought they were. Let me know what you think. Plus how far has Miami fallen to make them think scoring 26 points on them is considered running up the score?

Georgia Tech- See my take on BC. After this game the questions still remains; can Paul Johnsons offense work in the ACC?

North Carolina-Bye week.. This week Rutgers

Duke-Lost to Northwestern, is anyone really surprised by this?

Virginia-Beat Richmond, a Colonial conference opponent, by 16. Well to be fair they did shut them out.

So what does this say about the ACC? Well it is completely up for grabs. Before the season started most, if not all, thought it was going to be Clemson and VT in the ACCCG. Now it looks like anyone can get there. By this fact alone will make the ACC a very tough conference come end of October-beginning November. I suspect the ACC will come around by this point and be an elite conference once again by the end of this season going into the next. Tell me what you think.

Injury Update

2008-09-09T06:36:00.000-07:00

You can read it at the bottom of this article here. Emmanuel Dunbar is done for the season, he will undergo surgury. Bowden has confirmed that A.J. Ganguzza will be out for 4 weeks. No word yet on Ty Jones.

Hudson Named player of the week

2008-09-08T10:46:00.000-07:00

Congrats to Rodney Hudson for winning ACC player of the week. This should be further proof for an OL that, obviously, is not last in the ACC.

Chattanooga Predictions

2008-09-08T06:41:00.000-07:00

Final score will be 63-17 FSU. Chattanooga will struggle against us however will manage to get some points on the board in the second half. Ponder and DVO will put up numbers, as will Smith and Thomas as the OL continues to improve.

Buy or Sell?

2008-09-08T04:47:00.001-07:00

69-0 was the final score of Saturday nights demolition against Western Carolina. It is an amazing accomplishment to be able to score 69 points in a game and at the same time hold the other team scoreless. Keep in mind however Western Carolina only won one game last season in 1-AA. I am going to hold my excitement and enthusiasm for now and say sell. I know I know 69-0, but the competition gives me pause. Still, I am very excited about the talent that was shown and our potential at QB. But perhaps what makes me want to say sell; is our potential at QB. For the past 8 years I have been excited at the potential at QB, but that potential has never become anything else other then potential. Until we see that the QB position is solid and consistent against good competition we should keep our expectations low. So what does that mean? We should keep our expectations low until Wake, and then see how see how things go. So until Wake we really do not know what we have.

Western Carolina Game

2008-09-05T10:27:00.000-07:00

Well we play our first cup cake this weekend of the regular season. I am projecting a score of 54-13. This game should be a good game to start the season off. I think what has contributed to our past season issues was playing a tough game on Monday then having to come back and play another game 5 days later. Thankfully we do not have to worry about that this year. Check back this weekend for my analysis of the game. Or if you want leave a comment with your own analysis below.

Careful Seminole Fans

2008-09-04T05:23:00.000-07:00

First I would like to congratulate Christian Ponder on his promotion to starting QB. He has worked very hard and he deserves it. I would be lying if I said I wasn't surprised by this pick. I think though the more I look back on it the more it makes sense.

DVO is more of a play maker, however he is also more erratic. Remember I said DVO needed to show 3 things in order to be the starter? Well he had a hard time showing number 1(Be consistent).

At first glance DW would have been the obvious starting for the first couple of games because of his experience. However if a coach is going to change a losing philosophy into a winning philosophy; are you going to be successful without being bold?

Ponder is a very bold pick. Mostly because of the risks that are attached to the pick. What if Ponder plays terrible on Saturday? DVO comes in and plays well. Do you start DVO the next week? DVO play bad in that game, does DW come in at that point? Or do you put Ponder back out there? And thus we are back to the musical QB once again.

Just keep in mind all three of these guys were on the same level skill wise not too long ago. Ponder was picked because Jimbo wanted a radical change in philosophy within the team. This is without taking anything away from Ponder. Ponder brings a lot to the table. If anything he is a mix between DW and DVO.

At the end of the day we will have to wait and see how things work out, but let's hope this doesn't lead to a musical QB. A tune we have heard too often here and quit frankly are sick and tired of hearing.

The QB Announcement

2008-09-03T11:48:00.000-07:00

Here is the ACC Blog that talks about the QB situation and the fact that Jimbo has made a decision.

Note the Quote at the bottom:

Bowden said "I think [Jimbo is] going to tell them today. Could be he doesn't get around to it. But D'Vontrey and Ponder are good football players and we really think we can win with them."

Hmmm. I am really starting to think the starter might be DVO. Personally I rather see DW in there for the first couple of game but I don't make the call on that. Check back for more later.

Depth Chart Released

2008-09-02T10:52:00.000-07:00

OFFENSE
X-WR: Greg carr, Sr.; Jarmon Fortson, Fr.
LT: Joe Tonga, Sr.; Andrew Datko, Fr.
LG: Rodney Hudson, Soph.; Rhonne Sanderson, Fr.
C: Ryan McMahon, Soph.; A.J. Ganguzza, Fr.
RG: Will Furlong, Fr.; David Spurlock, Fr.
RT: Zebrie Sanders, Fr.; Antwane Greenlee, Fr.
TE: Josh Dobbie, Sr.; Bo Reliford, Fr.
Z-WR: Rod Owens, Jr.; Corey Surrency, Jr.
QB: Drew Weatherford, Sr. OR Christian Ponder, Soph. OR D'Vontrey Richardson, Soph.
FB: Seddrick Holloway, Jr.; Joe Surratt, Sr.
TB: Antone Smith, Sr.; Carlton Jones, Fr.

DEFENSE
LE: Ben Lampkin, Sr.; Markus White, Jr.
DT: Moses McCray, Fr.; Everett Dawkins, Fr.
DT: Kendrick Stewart, Jr.; John Jones, Fr.
RE: Everette Brown, Jr.; Kevin McNeil, Jr.
SLB: Toddrick Verdell, Sr.; Nigel Bradham, Fr.
MLB: Derek Nicholson, Sr.; Vince Williams, Fr.
WLB: Kendall Smith, Soph.; Kenny Ingram, Sr.
FC: Tony Carter, Sr.; Ochuko Jenije, Soph.
FS: Jamie Robinson, Jr.; Darius McClure, Sr.
RV: Myron Rolle, Jr.; Roosevelt Lawson, Sr.
BC: Korey Mangum, Jr.; Michael Ray Garvin, Sr.

SPECIAL TEAMS
PK: Zach Hobby, Jr.
DS: Zack Aronson, Jr.
KO: James Esco, Fr.
HO: Shawn Powell, Fr.
P: Shawn Powell, Fr.
KOR: Michael Ray Garvin, Sr.
PR: Tony Carter, Sr.

Perception and Misconception of our Offensive Line

2008-09-02T04:55:00.001-07:00

In the recent months a blog post was made on ESPN about how FSU’s offensive line was going to be the worst in the ACC. This very blog post gave FSU’s OL coach Rich Trickett a great idea; print out a copy of that blog and make every Offensive linemen carry it in their wallets for the entire season. Well so far the results have been positive. The Offensive line has been able to hold up in practice, well enough for our RB to be very productive. "Everybody was [ticked]," A.J. Ganguzza said, "But we're going to use it as motivation and prove people wrong.'' This seems to be the theme for the FSU OL men this year.

One thing is for sure, this will be the youngest Offensive line FSU has possibly ever fielded. But let’s get one thing straight; it is not the least experienced line in the ACC . Say what? You heard me it is not the least experienced line in the ACC. If you consider experience to be combined starts, FSU has second to least experienced line in the ACC. Clemson being the least experience line in the ACC. And Wake coming right after us. So is this a good thing being wedged in between Clemson and Wake? After all Wake Forest was only able to pull up 3.5 ypc against Baylor, a team that allowed over 180 yards per game on the ground to their opposition. And do I really need to remind you of how Clemson played this weekend?

Time will tell how our OL will perform but one thing is for sure they are working hard and they are not giving up. They have something to prove and they want to prove it. Coach Trickett is certainly not giving up on these guys. He has even stops throwing his cap at them. That has to merit something right?

Random Thoughts

2008-09-01T09:11:00.000-07:00

DVO

Seems that DVO is starting to separate himself from the other QB's. Note I said it seems he is separating. I will be clear that just by judging from the practice notes and comments from coaches DVO right now is the second string QB. DW gets first string strictly because of him being a veteran and having the experience he has. DW could very well lose that position if DVO can show these three things; 1.) be consistent, 2.) Make plays and 3.) Make plays consistently. If DVO can show he can do these things he will be the starter for wake.

Carlton Jones

This guy needs our respect. So far Carlton Jones has been a very impressive RB in practice. A little reminder as to who Jones is; He is a Tampa native and was an unranked two star RB according to rivals.com. He ran for 1,228 yards and 16 TD's as a senior in high school. The major question here is will he be able to take what he has done in practice and turn it into a real game? If this guy is as good as advertised things will be very good for our running game this year. Not only will it take runs away from Smith, who has suffered from injuries, this may ultimately make Smith a more efficient and productive runner.

Do we really need to fear anyone in this conference?

2008-08-31T16:37:00.001-07:00

Wow, that is all I have to say. First let me first say that after this weekend it is easy to say that the ACC sucks. Yes I said it. What are you going to do about it. Look at how the teams fared:

Wake Forest - A lot of people are high on them right now after there victory against Baylor (41-13). But seriously look at their stats from the game; they ran the ball 44 times and were only able to output 156 yards that is 3.5 yards a carry. Baylor is a team that allowed rushers to go for more then 180 yards on them each game last year. And all of the sudden Wake cannot run on them. Baylor is suppose to be the Duke of the Big 12.

Miami - Not a whole lot to complain about here. Miami took care of business, they did however play against Charleston Southern, but not bad. Major props to Jacob Harris for stepping in a playing an outstanding game.

Georgia Tech - Well it looks like Paul Johnson was able to get his offense working to bad it wasn't again an actual opponent we will see soon enough how effective it is in the ACC. How soon you ask? Try next week when they face off again BC, who's rushing defense was number one in the nation last year.

North Carolina State - One question; how the hell does your offense not put any points on the board after your defense grabs 4 INTS for you? Embarrassing! This is a team that clearly has issues. Their defense wasn't that bad they held USCe to 3 points before the half. To bad their offense is absolutely terrible. Gosh and I thought FSU offense was bad last year. I think for this game we can simply put the fans in to play defense and we will win this by 2 scores.

Virginia Tech - Another embarrassing lose to another pathetic team. Let's take a look at East Carolina last year; their defense allowed 29.8 points a game, their offense was able to average about 30 points a game playing C-USA opponents. The final score for Saturdays game again Virginia Tech; 27-22 East Carolina. Unbelievable! We are talking about a team that couldn't stop their opponent from scoring in the 30's all of last season was able to hold VT to 22. Either East Carolina got better or VT got worse. I am going with the later of the two.

Virginia - I don't have a lot to say about this one. Why? Because I didn't watch the game. Why? Because it doesn't take Nostradamus to predict that it was going to be 50 something to.....who cares Virginia was going to lose anyway.

Maryland - A certain ACC blogger said on her blog that Maryland would be a surprise team this year. Well it turns out she might be the only one to be surprised to find they only beat Delaware by a touchdown.

Boston College - Does anyone know what Matt Ryan's record as a starter in the preseason is? 2-1. Hey did you know if you put those two together that is how many points BC was to score about the "high powered defense monster" that is Kent State? Yeah. Just as I thought.

Duke - Here at Seminole Source I like to think I am a very rational person. Someone who thinks deeply and makes sense. Right now will not be one of those times. Because I am about to say something bold. Duke, today you are the best team in the conference. Celebrate hard because next week you play Northwestern and you will probably lose that game.

North Carolina - Didn't play all that great. In fact they are bad too. It just didn't come as a surprise as oh lets say.....

Clemson - 8.....The number 8 is a Fibonacci number, being 3 plus 5. The next Fibonacci number is 13. 8 is the only Fibonacci number that is a perfect cube. Why am I telling you all this? Well because that is the only reason that I can come up with as to why Tommy Bowden only gave Davis and Spiller 8 carries in that game.

Well I won't be doing an ACC game by game break down every week. If I did I would rename this Blog to ACC source rather then Seminole Source. Check back everyday for a new blog entry and also for website updates. I hope to pretty this thing up soon.

First Post

2008-08-31T16:34:00.000-07:00

Well here is the first post. Gosh the site seems a little plan; well I hope to change that real soon. Any way come check this blog out regularly to see some of my thoughts on the team this year I hope to be making a daily blog post.