Reason for a lose

While reading messages boards, blogs and articles I have come up with a short list of reasons why people think FSU will lose this game.

• FSU didn't play well in the second half of NCST.

• FSU allowed 20 to VT when VT had their 3rd string QB in.

• FSU will not be able to defend the triple-option because 

• The game is in ATL and GT will not lose 2 games in a row at home.

• FSU's offensive line is too young and GT's DL will cause major problems.
  

I have projected that FSU will lose this game(13-10 GT). And I can assure you my reason for us losing this game are not for the reason above, mostly due to the fact that these reason are beyond asinine.

To each point I say:

• NCST? Who cares? That game was two games ago. They are the only ACC team to rush for more then 100 yards against us. Also note two major things. They didn't get a 100 yard rusher on us and the most important part we still won the game.

• First VT's 3rd string QB didn't score 20 points on our defense he scored 7 toward the end of the game. I think if you are looking how that QB did against our defense take a look at the 2nd half yardage. FSU D allowed 38 yards the entire 2nd half. But what do I know?

• - Personally I am tired of hearing this argument. I hear it all the time. The fact I live in ATL may have a lot to do with it though. In the ACC GT has averaged ~20 points a game and get this duke is inflating that stat! Without duke they are scoring less then 20 in ACC play. My point is people in the ACC are finding ways to stop this offense. It might not be in the beginning of the game but quarters 2-4 that is certainly the case.

• Do I really need to address this one no. Why? Because word on the street is there are going to be more FSU fans in the ATL then GT fans. Oh well.

• I give the OL argument some cred. Only because it is an obvious weakness on our team. The problem I have with it is, this weakness alone hasn't stopped us. And it didn't prevent us from scoring 30 against VT, and from what I hear VT has a pretty good defense.
  

What are my reason for a lose? The two keys for this game will be ball control and field position. And I do not feel very good about the later of the two.

Looking at some drive logs GT, in conference play, has turned ~30% of their drives into points. For us it is about ~36% and since Wake Forest it has been ~49%. I should not have to point out the obvious advantage we have here.

Also special teams needs to give GT bad field position. About 2/3rd of GT scoring drives started at the GT40 or closer. We need to force them to go the length of the field. Hell instead of punting the ball we might as well have Ponder throw the ball as far as he can for an INT. If we catch it great 1st down if they do fine, now lets see you drive the ball 80 yards.

A Bobby Bowden Classic

North Carolina State Predictions

Gosh it has been a while. I guess this is what happens during a bye week....nothing. Well first FSU has it's hearing with the NCAA for it's involvement with academic scandal. More on this latter.

This is Chuck Amato's first game in Raleigh, NC since he was fired as the head coach at NCST. Look for the linebackers to have a big game for the chest. Also as a side note FSU has to score 7 more TD's(49 points) in order to tie for the number of TD's scored from all of last season. Right now FSU is averaging 39.6 points per game and NCST is allowing 30 points per game. Could this be the game where we tie for last seasons TD total?

Opponent Summary

This game is going to be won on special teams. NCST cannot move the ball very well down field, however when they get into the redzone they usually score a touchdown. So far this year NCST has only be able to score a touchdown if the special teams moves them close enough. They have shown moments were they can drive the field to score but it is rare, in fact I can count the number of times on one hand. One person to look out for is T.J. Grahm. He has returned one KO for a touchdown already. And he has gone the last three games returning a KO for 40 yards or more. Gano is going to have to kick this ball far and high if we have any chance of stopping this guy. And sorry but I am not buying into Wilson. I realize he was able to give BC nightmares, but seriously what has he done that was so magnificent? Unless he is saving up all of his skill for the FSU game I will not expect him to be a major factor in this game.

NCST's defense is something else. Allowing 430 points per game and 30 points per game. Also allowing 170 rushing yards per game as well. The defense should not pose a problem for us.

What to look for

Look for Jimbo to establish the run (I might as well make this my opining sentence for every prediction). But don't be surprised if Jimbo opens up the game with a play action pass. Jermain Thomas will get more touches for this game, most likely 10-15. Also I suspect Ponder will be passing more in this game. I will say if we have a chance to lose this game it will be through the passing game. The last time we focused on the passing game it was against Wake Forest, and we all know what happened there. I think however we will have some major success through the air, I know the receivers are chopping at the bit to contribute this year.

Prediction

If we are able to stop their special teams man from making plays this game won't even be close. Expect a score of 45-17 FSU.

So You Don't Like The BCS?

Well so do many other people including myself. So what I will do in this blog post is do exactly what oh so many have done before me and that is come up with my own solution. I know I know; playoffs....blah blah blah....plus one....blah blah blah, forget it! It is all garbage! Here at Seminole Source I have come up with the best solution to our current problem. What's that? You want to know what it is? Well......ok. 

Here goes, first think about what the BCS is meant to do. It was created so that the number 1 team and the number 2 team would play each other in a bowl game to determine who is the best team in college football. All the other bowl games are essentially game for next year and game to help teams with recruiting. So having said that is their anything wrong with the BCS? The short answer is no, but the their is something wrong with how we choose a number 1 and number 2. First you have the Harris poll then you have the AP poll and then you have the coaches poll and then some weird computer poll (this frightens me because this implies that computers have are advanced enough to have opinions). With all these polls and opinions how in the world will anyone be satisfied with the end result? Well truth be told we are not satisfied. So in other words we don't need to fix the BCS but rather we need to fix the way we rank teams.

Alright enough of the set up. Here is the best solution one could possibly come up with for fixing college football; Let's have a point system! For example every team starts off with 50 or so points at the beginning of every season. Each team then has to wager half of their total points for every game they play. If a team loses they lose those points, rounding down. While the team who won wins those points rounding up. We then rank the teams according to total number of points at the end of each week. 

How will this effect scheduling weaker opponents in the first few games? 

It should force teams to cut back on that. While the first game will most likely be a cupcake game, since all teams have the same number of points, as the season progresses teams will want to schedule harder competition. Due to the fact that the tougher teams will have more points toward the end of the season.

How do you handle tie breakers?

First if the two teams have played each other during the year the team who won gets the high ranking. However the odds of that happening are rare so the team with the best overall record gets ranked high and then whoever has the best conference ranking.

What about bowl games?

Bowl games and the Championship game does not change just the way each team is ranked.

Miami Game Afterthought

• Miami's defense like I predicted here was not as advertised. We were able to run on them with ease. It is surprising that UF struggled so much against them.
• Take away three plays from this game and the score is 41-20 FSU. However due to the miscues from the not-so-speacial teams and one by the offense, we ended up giving up 19 points due to turnovers.
• Christian Ponder is a lot better then people originally thought. He was able to make a number of plays with his legs. Now let's see him make some with his arm.
• Jimbo called a great game however given a second chance he probably would have called a run play instead of the screen pass that lead to Ponders 2nd INT. Also upon further observation it would appear that Smith's 4th TD was not a play call to get into the middle of the field but rather a designed play.
  
• Bobby was on average 35.7 yards away from the rest of the team the entire night.

Miami Prediction

First Things First

We have an opportunity this weekend to file the stands and over power our away team. Last week against UNC, Miami was only able to pull in 30K-most of which were UNC fans. So lets make Dolphins Stadium DOAK!

Opponent Summary

As stated here Miami's defense truly should not be something to worry too much about. If we get into the Red zone we will most likely score against their defense (9/10). Their offense has some bright spots in it with their RB's and their QB's seem to be play well enough to win. However I am curious to see how well Miami can play with our pass rush.

What to look for

Look for Jimbo to establish the run once again. We will not just see Smith running the ball, but you will see Thomas, Jones and with the return of Sims we should see a lot more counters and I-formation plays. Watch Ponder to throw short swing passes and deep play action passes.

Prediction

Alright I know I will most likely catch hell for this but here goes; 30-14 FSU. I think RS is going to have one LB in coverage in order to make up for their secondary's lack of performance. This will hurt their run defense significantly.

Ok Tell Me Again Why Miami's Defense Is Dangerous?

Look at some quick stats here:

Ranking of Offensive Yards in 1-AA

Charleston Southern - 251.

Ranking of Rushing yards per game

UF- 58
Texas A&M - 101
North Carolina- 98

So After Looking at these stats UF really hasn't played a team with much of a rushing offense. Now In order for my argument to be complete I would also have to contend that we have a rushing offense but that is not clear at the moment. But I honestly think Miami's rushing defense is not as advertised. Not saying they are bad, they are good just not as dangerous as the Number 1 ranking in the ACC would suggest. Not mention the combined FBS teams.....average 3.7 yards a carry, with UF inflating that stat with 4.4 yards a carry.

Oh yeah and their passing defense; has allowed passers to put up a 143(101 NFL) passer rating, giving up 8 TD through the air.

So knowing all of this why is Miami's defense considered so dangerous? Stay tuned for the Miami game prediction post.